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Foreclosures in Focus: Maricopa CountyA Look at What 2009 Delivered and What 2010 May Hold
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Arizona REALTOR® Archives 2003 - 2010 Arizona REALTOR® Publication Information Log-In Note: The digital edition and some online articles require you to log in before viewing. Why? AAR password protects content that could help non-licensees close a real estate transaction without the benefit of a REALTOR®; risk management/legal articles; and some legislative information. Don’t yet have a log in? Create one here.  
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The last 12 months add another chapter to Arizona’s boom-or-bust real estate story, and this time the bust is on steroids. Over the past year, we’ve seen record foreclosures, falling prices, incredible depression, and lastly, renewed hope. Though many realized the heights to which our market soared in 2006 were unsustainable, few could have imagined the velocity at which our market fell and the depths to which we would tumble. We began the fourth quarter of 2008 with foreclosure activity and bank-owned properties at historical highs and trending upwards. The market was searching for any type of positive support—or maybe just a hug—when Lehman Brothers failed and the stock market plunged. Everywhere you looked, the news was bad and getting worse. With an emergency session of Congress and $700 billion later, Uncle Sam was in the banking business. Washington followed their capital infusion with close scrutiny, a foreclosure moratorium was mandated, and our upward trending foreclosure line leveled to 12,500 foreclosures per quarter, 95% of which reverted to the lender. With bank-owned inventories at all time highs, home shoppers with the ability to buy began to recognize unbelievable bargains with little or no competition. Business as “unusual” continued through the holidays and into February, when the moratorium was lifted. As expected, foreclosures soared to 5,237 for the month. In March, new notices followed suit, climbing to 10,689, and the doomsayers came out in force predicting a summer housing collapse with massive foreclosures everywhere. National publications were labeling Arizona the worst place in America to buy real estate. On the ground, savvy real estate investors were snapping up bank-owned properties, and a bidding war emerged.   On April 6th, prices hit bottom, and investors searching for bargains turned to short sales and the courthouse steps. The summer came and went as the federal government continued orchestrating an orderly exit from the theatre. New notices had peaked in March, and trustee’s deeds hit their high in July. Regardless, quarterly foreclosure numbers had found their home: 12,500. The dire predictions of spring never materialized. As fall arrives and winter approaches, it is not only possible but probable that the worst of the housing crisis is behind us. Record unemployment and 50,000 active notices will keep the champagne on ice through next year. Just the same, there are reasons to be optimistic. Active notices will quite likely peak this quarter, signaling another market bottom. Bank-owned inventories are manageable. Third-party buyers are purchasing 25% of the properties auctioned and gathering momentum. Short sales are becoming a familiar practice. And new notices are hinting at year-over-year declines.   The biggest positive? Arizona has its two best players back in the starting lineup, a combination which has been unbeatable for 50 years: affordable housing and climate. Today it’s 83 degrees with sunshine, and 83% of all household incomes can afford a median-priced home. I even saw a national publication last week calling Arizona the best place to buy in America.
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